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Size & Characteristics
of the Dropout/ Graduation Crisis
To date, there are no more than a dozen community/city level studies of the characteristics of the dropout/graduation rate crisis and to our knowledge no state level studies. Yet analysis of how many students are dropping out/not graduating in different locales, how far these students are from graduation when they dropout, how dropout/graduation rates vary by student characteristics, and how students who need strong interventions to graduate are distributed across schools are essential if efforts to increase graduation rates are to succeed. Without this knowledge it will not be possible to know if proposed reforms are sufficient to address the scale and nature of the dropout / graduation crisis or targeted appropriately at the right schools and students.
EGC researchers are working with both states and cities to build this knowledge base.
Unfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions and Characteristics of Philadelphia’s Dropout Crisis, 2000-2005
This comprehensive report analyzed data for six cohorts of freshmen in Philadelphia’s public schools (the Classes of 2000 through 2005) to estimate the percentage of students who had graduated from high school. The analysis involved tracking the educational progress of students over multiple years. For five of the six classes, fewer than half of the students graduated within four years of starting high school; the Class of 2005 was the only one with a four-year graduation rate of at least 50%. Approximately 55% of the students graduated within six years of starting high school. Although there were differences in the high school graduation rate by gender, race/ethnicity, and neighborhood, the overwhelming message was that no group had a very high graduation rate.
In these cohorts, the vast majority of students who dropped out of school in Philadelphia had earned fewer than half of the credits they would need to graduate from high school – even though most were at least 17 years old when they dropped out of school. These facts have informed community planning for multiple pathways to earning a high school diploma.
This research project was conducted in collaboration with Project U-Turn, a collaborative that is working on solutions to the dropout crisis in Philadelphia.
Unfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions and Characteristics of Philadelphia's Dropout Crisis, 2000-2005. Ruth Curran Neild and Robert Balfanz. Philadelphia Youth
Transitions Collaborative and Project U-Turn. www.projectUturn.net
Baltimore Education Research Consortium
6th Grade Cohort Study
The Baltimore Education Research Consortium (BERC) is partnership between Johns Hopkins University, Morgan State University, and the Baltimore City Public School System to enhance Baltimore’s capacity to conduct strategic data analysis which supports improvements in the education of Baltimore’s children.
Visit its website to read two recent reports-one follows a cohort of first graders as they progress through the sixth grade-and a second follows a cohort of sixth graders as they progress through to graduation. BERC is beginning a three-year investigation of the factors that enable and prevent students from progressing through to graduation on time, with grade level skills.
Colorado Districts Study
The Center for Social Organization of Schools (CSOS) is participating in an initiative aimed at cutting Colorado's dropout rate over the next decade, spearheaded by the Colorado Children's Campaign, the Colorado Foundation for Families and Children, Colorado Youth for a Change and other Colorado organizations. As a first step in designing and implementing district initiatives, CSOS is leading an analytical process to provide useful information for data-informed decision making on the part of districts.
Using de-identified longitudinal student level data provided by several Colorado school districts, CSOS researchers are constructing profiles of the dropout student population in these districts to provide useful data for district decision-making regarding initiatives to prevent dropout outcomes and provide recovery opportunities for overage students who need additional credits for high school graduation. These profiles provide such information as how far away dropouts were from graduation in terms of credits earned, what percentage of dropouts began high school significantly below grade level (indicating the need for interventions and reform efforts in middle schools), what percentage of the dropout problem is primarily related to attendance problems, etc. In addition, the district analyses provide information on how many current middle school students are at risk of dropping out because of attendance, behavior, or course failure problems, and where these students are concentrated, so that early warning systems and effective interventions can be implemented in those schools.